Context

Today there is a worldwide pool of potentially damaging organisms that could enter the UK, so robust “horizon scanning” methods are needed to predict future risks. A completed Centre for Forest Protection pilot project highlighted that existing methods are limited in their ability to reliably identify future threats to a particular tree species. Limitations include failure to use local-scale future climate projection data, which provides data on changes in growing conditions, and risks such as increased drought and climatic suitability for the pest/pathogen. There is also an overreliance on professional judgement and traditional pest risk assessment by experts.

Research aims and objectives

Our research objectives are to:

• Evaluate existing published horizon scanning approaches for their advantages and limitations.
• Evaluate other risk analysis or biosecurity modelling studies, that can be incorporated into a more targeted analysis for key tree species.
• Identify the data and tools that are available to support HS methods for identifying threats, including pests and diseases, to British grown trees.
• Investigate and determine the value of a collaborative international approach.

Main Findings

The rapid review of existing horizon scanning and modelling approaches has identified a range of potential methods and assessed them for gaps and opportunities. We have proposed a framework for a robust, data-driven horizon scanning approach that takes greater account of changing climate and rich, detailed data sources, and recommended a practical workflow for an assessment for Sitka spruce and Douglas-fir.

The project identified opportunities for transdisciplinary research and international collaborative working to tackle forest health issues that cross borders.