Context

To support the UK’s expanding national afforestation programme, stakeholders require better tools to predict which tree genotypes will perform well under current and future climates.  

UK forestry and woodland management has traditionally applied a “local is best” approach, by sourcing seeds and saplings close to targeted afforestation sites. However, this strategy is likely to be severely disrupted in the coming decades as bioclimatic zones shift, and local tree populations potentially become less well adapted.  

This project uses dendrochronology and genomics to enable us to see how tree DNA interacts with environmental conditions. 

Research aims and objectives

Aim:

Begin to predict how different tree genotypes will respond across a range of climate conditions by combining tree ring data with a full genome sequence across hundreds of individual trees.

Objectives:

Method development 

• Use year-to-year growth and climate data to identify which climatic conditions UK tree populations are best adapted to and use this data to more precisely estimate how well their genetics match future climates, including extreme weather events. 

Method validation 

• Exploit the long-term growth-climate record in tree ring traits to train a model using data from 1900-90, and test it using data from 1990-2024, to see if genomic offset estimates can accurately predict important traits for forestry under today’s warmer climate (about 1.5°C higher).  

Delivering impact 

Apply these tools to:

• examine whether young woodlands are struggling to adapt (building on a previous project: Evaluating genetic and environmental bottlenecks in planted and naturally colonised woodlands – Centre for Forest Protection),
• create maps showing the best seed sources for future climates to help stakeholders,
• estimate the environmental and economic benefits of using the best tree genotypes. 

Expected outcomes

This project will help show the value of planting the ‘right tree in the right place’ in growth, economics, and carbon terms. Methods will be improved to measure local adaptation and the effects of extreme weather events. The impact of climate change on tree growth will be studied using tree ring data, and practical examples will be provided to show how these tools can support stakeholders, as described below.

These tools are specifically applicable in the UK, where climate impacts are already being felt, and there is an urgent need to identify the tree types suited for future climate conditions. 

Collaboration with stakeholders will: 

• Identify seed zones and gene flow strategies prepared for future climates to inform future policies.
• Predict the performance of newly planted and naturally regenerating woodlands compared to mature forests. 
• Estimate the benefits of selecting optimal tree genotypes by comparing growth responses of well-adapted individuals versus poorly adapted ones. 
• Increase confidence in genomic tools through robust validation, linking results to growth and carbon outcomes for both industry and restoration. 

Further resources linked to this project